ABI Research says the 2026 to 2028 investment window will determine whether telcos remain connectivity providers or expand into distributed AI infrastructure and new revenue models
According to global technology intelligence firm ABI Research, 6G deployments will begin as a radio upgrade before evolving into AI-native networks supported by distributed AI infrastructure. The firm forecasts total 6G radio revenue will grow from US$8.1 billion in 2029 to US$67.0 billion in 2034, creating a strategic inflection point for operators deciding whether to stay focused on connectivity or move up the AI value chain.
“Operators have a narrow window to decide what role they want to play in the 6G era,” says Michael Moreno, Research Analyst at ABI Research. “A simple radio upgrade improves capacity and efficiency, but the larger long-term opportunity lies in building the compute, orchestration, and service layers needed to support distributed AI workloads and enterprise AI monetization.”
ABI Research also finds that AI-chipset radio revenue will scale rapidly through the 6G transition, rising from US$1.8 billion in 2029 to US$57.7 billion in 2034 and increasing from 23% to 86% of total 6G radio revenue over that period. The firm identifies 2029 through 2031 as the key economic validation phase, when operators will test whether enterprise demand, inference services, and token-based consumption models can justify broader investment in distributed AI infrastructure.
The research highlights a sharp divide between a lower-risk RAN-led upgrade path and a more transformative AI-Grid model. In the first scenario, operators make limited changes beyond the RAN and incremental upgrades to the core and transport layers; in the second, they must redesign the network across core, edge, OSS/BSS, automation, and compute to support real-time workload placement and AI-native services. Vendor activity from Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, NVIDIA, Mavenir, Intel, and hyperscalers underscores that the ecosystem is already positioning for both outcomes.
“The real question is not whether AI will be part of 6G, but who will capture the value it creates,” Moreno says. “Tier-1 operators may have the scale to invest in AI infrastructure ownership and application enablement, while smaller operators will likely need to focus on partnerships, AI hosting, and selective edge opportunities where latency, locality, or sovereignty requirements create an advantage over centralized cloud providers.”
