- 3nm and 2nm nodes to hit key milestone, with one-third smartphone SoCs featuring it by 2026 driven by more performance and higher efficiencies.
- Increasing adoption of GenAI smartphone and the need for more powerful and efficient processing power will be a key driver.
- Apple will lead 3nm node adoption in 2025 with more than 80% of the portfolio adopting it.
- In 2026, Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek will adopt 2nm node produced by TSMC.
- 5/4nm node will account for more than one-third of the smartphone SoC shipments in 2026 making it the biggest in terms of adoption in smartphones.
Leading nodes (3nm and 2nm) will account for roughly one-third of the smartphone SoC shipments in 2026, according to Counterpoint’s latest Global AP-SoC Long-term forecast by Nodes. Apple was the first smartphone OEM to adopt TSMC’s 3nm process, which was used in fabricating its A17 Pro SoC featured in the iPhone 15 Pro series in 2023. The following year, Qualcomm and MediaTek launched their flagship SoCs based on the 3nm process. In 2025, 3nm will be the dominant node for all new flagships SoCs.
Accelerated Adoption of 2nm and 3nm in Flagship SoCs
The adoption of 3nm and 2nm is increasing due to the stronger performance and higher efficiencies it offers, which is required for on-device AI, immersive gaming and high-resolution content on phones. 3nm and 2nm provide higher transistor density and faster clock speeds which is needed for growing computational power.
Commenting on the adoption of leading edge in smartphone SoCs, Senior Analyst Parv Sharma said, “The current demand for complex on-device AI capabilities is a significant accelerator for moving to smaller, more powerful, and more efficient nodes. This has also led to an increase in the overall cost of the SoC due to higher wafer price and rising semi content in smartphone SoCs. The 3nm and 2nm nodes will hit a key milestone with one-third smartphone SoCs expected to feature them by 2026.”
Further commenting on the node migration trend, Sharma said, “TSMC will start the tape out process for the 2nm node in H2 2025 and mass production in 2026. Apple, Qualcomm and MediaTek are expected to launch their first wave of flagship SoCs in late 2026. For the first two to three years, the adoption of 2nm will be limited to the flagship and premium SoCs. Meanwhile, most of the smartphone SoCs in the mid-tier segment will migrate to 5/4nm process nodes as it will be required for the computing needs of the devices, and in the coming years they will transition to 3nm. The 5/4nm node will account for more than one-third of the smartphone SoC shipments in 2026, making it the most-adopted node in smartphones. Entry-level 5G SoCs will migrate from the 7/6nm nodes to the 5/4nm, whereas LTE SoCs will migrate from mature nodes to the 7/6 nm node.”
Global Smartphone SoC Shipments Share by Node
Source: Counterpoint Research Global AP-SoC Long-term forecast by Nodes
TSMC Foundry Dominance
Commenting on the dominance of TSMC, Associate Director Brady Wang said, “TSMC is the undisputed king when it comes to chip manufacturing. In 2025, TSMC will likely lead total smartphone SoC shipments with an 87% share in the 5nm and below (3nm and 2nm) nodes and is expected to grow to 89% by end of 2028. Major fabless smartphone SoC vendors like Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek rely on TSMC for leading edge. However, Google Tensor and Samsung Exynos currently use Samsung Foundry. Samsung Foundry has faced some yield issues in the past, delaying the adoption of 3nm in smartphones. We expect Samsung Foundry to focus on the 3nm and 2nm process nodes, with 2nm mass production expected by 2026.”
Wang added, “It is clear that the future of smartphones, from mid-tier devices to flagships, depends on the leading-edge process nodes (4nm and below). There are very few alternatives to TSMC, Samsung Foundry and SMIC being two of them. SMIC fabricates SoCs for HiSilicon, which will be used in Huawei smartphones. However, it is limited to the 7nm process node due to current geopolitical strains between US and China and the ban on the sale of EUV machines to SMIC. TSMC’s leading position can be challenged if Samsung Foundry rapidly scales up 2nm and 3nm, and if SMIC acquires EUV machines for leading node fabrication.”
